The research activities in MB 4 focus on applications to forecasting, with preexisting, strong ties between mathematical scientists and meteorologists within Transregional Collaborative Research Center “Waves to Weather” (CRC TRR 165), and leading to the recent creation of a junior research group on "Artificial Intelligence for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting". We continue to develop methods for the generation and evaluation of weather forecasts, with the aim of developing the best forecasting systems possible. 

Conversely, the encountered applied challenges stimulate and inform theoretically and methodologically oriented research on the foundations of predictive science, and particularly on the evaluation of predictive performance, with close ties to current developments in machine learning.

Similarly, in a Helmholtz Association supported project on "Scalable and Interpretable Models for Complex and Structured Data" (SIMCARD) we tackle data science challenges in meteorology and epidemiology. In view of new societal challenges, attention on this project has shifted to the scientific response to the coronavirus pandemic, including the development of the German-Polish COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://kitmetricslab.github.io/forecasthub/forecast) and associated methods for the generation and evaluation of epidemiological ensemble forecasts.